126 My new view of dividend shares

My new view of dividend shares	我对于股息股的新观
I am reading this book "Stock Market Investment In Malaysia And Singapore (1989)" by Dr Neoh Soon Kean. I must say this is a very informative and good book. It has many insights that can strengthen or changed our views of shares investment. I think new investors should read this book before getting his hand wet.	我正在读梁孙建博士的《马新股票市场投资》这本书。我必须说这是一本非常好又充满资讯的书。里头有许多观念或许可以加强或者改变我们现有的观念。我认为投资信心人都应该读这本书才开始“下水”。
It's a bit pity the book is out-of-print, and Dr Neoh is not going to update it anymore. It make me see how crazy it was during the previous market craze. Really think he can do us many help by updating the book, or maybe re-print the last edition.	可惜的是这本书已经绝版了，更可惜的是梁博士无意再更新内容。真的很可惜因为梁博士让我看到过往的股市疯狂期到底有多疯狂，若是他能更新1989年后的境况，必定可以让我们这些后辈获益良多。前事不忘后事之师。或许梁博士也可以考虑再版1989年般吧。
One of my view being changed is how I look at dividend shares. Well, all the while, I think of dividend shares as boring. Growth shares should do better than dividend one. The book give me a new view.	其中一个我被改变的观念是关于股息股。一直以来，我都认为股息股很烦闷，成长应该比股息股强。这本改变了我。
As I read in many books, the total return of a shares investment is made up of two parts - the capital gain and the dividend. That is:- Total return = Capital gain + Dividend	我在许多书中读到，一个股票投资的总回酬由两个部分组成，亦即资本成长和股息。简化：- 总回酬 = 资本成长 + 股息。
And to be able to declare a dividend, a company has to make a profit in its business in the first place. So no profit, no dividend. Fair and square.	一间公司要派出股息，首先必须先有盈利。没有盈利，没有股息。很公道。
And the amount of dividend to be declared depends on company's management. If they think the company needs the profit for more expansion, the it can declare lower or nil dividend. This we can see from many growing small companies where their dividend is very low. On the other hand, if a company think it has no use of the extra profit, it may declare large dividend. This we can see from companies like Digi or Classic Scenic, where almost all of their earnings are declared as dividend.	而股息的多寡又取决于公司对于盈利的用途。若是公司打算继续扩张，公司可能就降低派息或甚至于停止派息。很多成长中的小型公司的股息都很少的。另一方面呢，若是公司认为保留盈利无用，那就可以派发高股息。我们看到Digi和Classic Scenic就是把全数盈利派出的公司。
The book gave me this view, and I think it provided me a very good reason to dare to accumulate good stocks during their temporary share price drop or a whole market drop. Dr Neoh observed that when a company that is selling at cheap P/E that is able to declare a higher dividend than offered by a bank is worth a look. When this company is making more and more profit, and declaring more and more dividend, its share price inevitably must go up because its Dividend Yield cannot stay too high.	这本书给我一个新观念，让我有勇气去买入股价下跌的股票（股价下跌可能是因为公司或是整个市场的关系）。梁博士观察到本益比低而又有能力派息高过定存的股票都值得一看。当一间公司不停的盈利、不停派息，它的股价必定要跟着水涨船高的。
In summary, my view was share price goes up because of improving profits. Dr Neoh's view is share price goes up because of dividend yield cannot stay too high for too long. Let's say company A, B, C and D are all in the same industry. And Company A is constantly making higher and higher dividend than the other three, the market is going to notice that and buy Company A's share until its dividend yield is almost on par with the other three.	简单来说，我的看法是盈利推高股价。梁博士的看法是派息率推高股价，因为某间公司的派息率不可能长久维持高位。例如公司甲、乙、丙、丁皆在同个行业。若是公司甲的持续派出高息，市场必定是要看见这个情况，进而买入公司甲的股票、推高股价，知道派息率接近其他三间公司。
The most important thing that make me excited was his insistence of low P/E. If Company A can be making higher and higher profit and yet it is selling at a low P/E, it is telling us it a good and cheap company. Aren't we always on search on good and cheap? This is especially exciting if Company A's historical P/E was of higher value - the falling P/E means its price has dropped while still making high profits. Wouldn't I want to grab of the shares?	让我兴奋的是，他坚持买入低本益比的公司。若是公司甲持续盈利而又只有低本益比，那它在告诉我们它是“价廉物美的公司”。难道我们不是在寻找价廉物美的吗？如果公司甲的过往本益比都是在高位，那就更不得了，因为这告诉我们股价在跌但盈利保持。难道我不想买吗？
Dr Neoh used OCBC and Esso to explain his point. In the market after 1987, shares prices are falling making many good company able to give up very high dividend. If one study the dividend yield history of a particular company, and observe the dividend yield is getting higher and higher, it is screaming "buy me".	梁博士以OCBC和Esso来解释。1987年后，股价下跌，许多的强健的公司皆有能力派发高息。若是有人长期注意某间公司的派息记录，必定能注意到越来越高的股息其实正在大声宣告“买我吧”。
By using the same logic, I see many property companies and furniture companies are having high dividend yield. For instance, properties companies has been down for the past three years, many investors are shunning their shares, is it telling me to buy? I must admit I am tempted to those low P/E high DY. Will the property market never to recover? Definitely no. It's a matter of when, right? The price may drop, but I can get the dividend.	用回同样的逻辑，现在我看到许多产业股和家具股皆派发高息。例如产业股已经低迷了两三年，许多股友也避之则吉，这是否在告诉我要买进呢？我承认我有冲动要买进低本益比加高股息的。难道产业市场就此完蛋了吗？不会吧？应该是时间的问题罢了吧？若是股价继续下跌，至少我还有股息可收。
I think my portfolio should have some in dividend shares - especially those beaten but still making profit. As investor, it's easy to say "buy low, sell high". We always hesitate to press the buy button when we see the price keep falling. I now admit dividend will provide some comfort during such buying period. I can imagine in 2008 crisis, all those blue-chips must be screaming "buy me, buy me". Those who did make a killing, those who didn't regretted. So, now dividend yield strategy give a strong boost to dare to buy cheap and good. Cheers.	从此，我想我的收藏应该含有股息股，尤其是那些股价低迷但盈利保持的。身为投资者，很容易说“买低卖高”，但是要安买入键的时候就心理犹豫了。我现在承认股息就能在这样的买卖中提供一些安慰。我可以想象2008年的危机中，所以的蓝筹股必定是高喊“我在这，买我吧”。那些行动的高唱丰收，那些不屑一顾的捶胸顿足。若如此，股息股策略不就给了买入价廉物美股票的强心针吗？大家努力吧。

125 Phillip Capital launches global futures fund

Phillip Capital launches global futures fund	辉立资本推出环球期货基金
Phillip Capital Malaysia recently launches a futures fund - the first of its kind in the market. Futures are normally traded by individuals. I think there is few funds in Singapore that use certain portion of its NAV to trade futures to protect the downside.	马来西亚辉立资本最近推出了市场唯一的期货基金。一般参与期货的都是个人投资者。我记得新加坡有几个基金把部分资金放在期货市场以便减少亏损。
For this fund, only half of the fund will be traded in futures, the other half will be in safe instrument. The features of the fund's design plus performance based on watermark shows me the fund manager should be aiming for prudent fund management.	这个基金将会把一半的资金用来交易期货，另一半则将放在安全的投资项目里边。这样的设计再加上依watermark的论功行赏的制度让我觉得基金经理应该是以保本为优先。
Investors are most worried during prolong falling market. Stocks or unit trusts are best bought during falling market, as we get to lower our cost and to gain when market recovers. However, it is human nature to feel uneasy to see investment value shrinking.	在长期的下跌市场中，投资者一般都是比较忧虑的。在下跌市场中不停买进股票或是信托基金，其实让我们降低成本以便在市场上升后，让赚利可以最大化。但看见投资额不停萎缩始终是人性的弱点。
Derivative market is created to take advantage of the falling market, for an investor can sell / short the market to make gains. On the other hand, it can long / buy the market when the market is on its way up. Investors can make money both ways. Investors also can lose money both ways, so investors must never be unaware of this!	衍生市场是可以让投资者在下跌市场继续获利，因为投资者可以在这样的行情进行卖空来获利。相反的，投资者也可在上升市场中买进市场来获利。所以衍生产品是双向获利的工具，但如果做错了，亦有可能双向亏损。不可不慎！
Will the fund gain popularity? We have to wait and see.	这样基金是否会大获好评呢？让我们拭目以待吧。