170 Monthly stock market and funds watchlist returns 每月股市、所追踪基金的回酬

 170 Monthly stock market and funds under watchlist returns 每月股市、所追踪基金的回酬

1) Stock market under watchlist

(Only selected stock market are monitored.)

For month ending Jul 2023, the best market was Vietnam, followed by Hang Seng China Enterprise, and Russell 2000.

For YTD return, best market is NASDAQ, NIKKEI 225 and VNI.

2) Funds under watchlist

(Selected funds means funds that I am interested to track. Funds are grouped according to their target investment country. Purpose is just to see when a stock market performed, can my selected funds catch up. If there is a mismatch in between the two, it either means I chose the wrong funds or funds being actively managed may performed differently from index stocks.)

For month ending Jul 2023, the best funds are Singapore, followed by Japan Large Cap and KLCI SmallCap funds.

For YTD, best funds are from US Large Cap, Japan Large Cap and Global funds.

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1) 观察名单下的股市

（只追踪特定股市）

截至2023年7月尾，最佳股市为越南，紧接着是恒生中国企业和罗素2000指数。

而开年迄今呢，最佳股市为纳斯达克，日经225和越南指数。

2) 观察名单下的基金

（特选基金代表我有意追踪的基金。基金会依据投资标的国家分类。目的是想知道当某个股市表现标清时，我的特选基金是否能跟得上脚步。如果这两者不同步的话，可能是我选了错的基金，亦有可能是主动操盘的基金本身不一定会复制大盘成分股的走势。）

截至2023年7月尾，最佳基金投资于新加坡，紧接着是日本大资本和吉隆坡小资本基金。

开年迄今呢，最佳基金投资于美国大资本，日本大资本以及全球基金。

169 A fund I am not familiar with - Phillip SELECT Balance Fund 我所不熟悉的基金 Phillip SELECT Balance Fund

169 A fund I am not familiar with - Phillip SELECT Balance Fund 我所不熟悉的基金 Phillip SELECT Balance Fund

Yesterday, I was asked to give some advice to a walk-in client. It was a family of three persons - mother and her two daughters.

It was a fund that I am not familiar with - Phillip SELECT Balance Fund. This fund was taken over from another fund house.

During the conversation, one of the daughter mentioned the fund was left by their late father. Before this, they were liaising with the original fund house for the transfer of ownership. Then suddenly was informed it was taken over by Phillip.

The mother remembered they invested because the bank keep asking them to invest, 20 years ago. And  she remember the fund price, at one time, drop to very low. She thought the money is like gone.

I told her I am not familiar with that fund, but the latest value is twice their invested value. The return may be low, but not to the extent of "gone with the wind".

Today I am very curious how low the fund price was that made them think the money is gone.

So, I use Morningstar Malaysia to check.

Below is the chart. Yah, over the last 20 years, the return is 120%. So yah, it match what clients said lah.

But how come the clients has impression the fund price once dropped like almost gone? Below is the chart by looking at the historical fund price.

Aha, we can see the fund price, after peaked at before 2015, keep on going down. How come? If the price keep going down, how the return can maintained for the past few years.

The little red circles with D at the below of the chart indicate the historical distribution (dividend). As I check, the distribution (dividend) was consistently 3-4 sen.

So the adjusted fund price after distribution (dividend) made clients has impression fund is going down the drain lah.

Anyway, clients need to furnish some documents to completed the transfer of ownership before deciding to redeem or keep invested.

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昨天，我被要求给上门的顾客给点意见。那是一家三口-妈妈以及两个女儿。

那是 Phillip SELECT Balance Fund，一个我不熟悉的基金。这个基金是另一个公司接管的。

交谈中从其中一个女儿口中晓得该基金是他们过世的父亲留下的。在这之前呢，他们跟原本的基金公司处理到一半时，收到信说基金被 Phillip 接管了。

妈妈记得廿年前买的，因为银行一直叫他们买。然后她还记得有一阵子基金价钱掉到很低，他们也不想看了。

我说我不熟悉该基金，但如果该基金的价值是成本的两倍，那还不止于血本无归啦。

刚刚趁着有时间，好奇到底基金价钱掉到多低，低到让顾客觉得钱血本无归。

所以用 Morningstar Malaysia 查查看。

看下图。过去的20年，基金成长了 120%。吖，差不多就是顾客说的回酬啦。

但为什么顾客会有血本无归的印象呢？看看下图的过往基金价钱图。

啊，基金价钱自从2015年触顶后，就一路往下，难怪啦。但如果价钱一直往下，基金的回酬为何又保持几年不变呢？

图中下面那一排的红圈D字是过往基金的派息记录。查看看过往都有派息3-4分。

派息后基金价钱往下调整让顾客以为基金价钱一直掉啦。

另，顾客暂时不能做什么，因为还必须提交一些文件完成转移财产过后，才可以决定要卖、要留还是要转。

168 Japan Economy - Notes taken from youtube 日本经济

 168 Japan Economy - Notes taken from youtube 日本经济

《日本主題系列》｜第129集｜日圓貶創造三贏 日企回流潮帶動經濟全面復興?! 美軍艦將在三菱.川崎維修 深化美日軍事同盟!【元大投顧財金頻道-(https://youtu.be/PFOCXcKhvzw)

主持人的总结：-

1. 为了避免中国大陆他的势力慢慢往右拓展，因此美国就结盟了日本。在日本维修船舰等等。
2. 日本经济已经在崛起了。日本政局稳定，因为都是自民党。内阁的支持度，安倍晋三、菅义伟、岸田文雄，依旧偏领先。有了支持度，凡是都好做，任何的政策都好推。
3. 安倍三箭让货币政策极度宽松。当市场上钱多得不得了，日圆就会走贬。
4. 日圆贬，许多人到日本去观光旅游。观光财被带动起来。
5. 第二个，日圆贬，日本制造的东西在日本境内做，卖到了海外就变便宜。因此出口也带动起来。
6. 第三个，日本企业因为东西卖到了海外，赚了很多的美元。日圆走贬，汇回日本，就有汇兑收益。日圆贬50%，企业的获利净赚，即海外投资所得收益余额就增加了50%。
7. 日圆不可能永远贬、一直贬。偶尔日圆会转升，日本企业会不会就不赚钱了？不会。因为当日圆走贬，日本企业体质整个大改善了，赚钱了，就可以拉高自身的良率，就有更多的创新。产品做得就更有竞争力。所以当就算日圆走升，日本企业的获利，稳在高档。就算日后日圆由贬约略转升了，日本企业海外赚的这些的获利依旧能够保持高度成长。
8. 第四个，因为慢慢通膨起来了，如果通膨能够稳在2%，而且日本企业都在加薪，员工加薪，消费力道更强，GDP自然就起来了。
9. 四大综效，让日本经济摆脱了过去30年的通缩窘境，扭转成了通膨温和成长的日本经济崛起。

《日本主題系列》｜第133集｜日本走出失落30年!日圓貶值.創造通膨.製造業復興 讓日本經濟再次崛起【元大投顧財金頻道-理財最錢線】【主持(https://youtu.be/qBRTKJ-TxA8)

主持人的总结：-

1. 明明日圆走贬了，对日本经济有帮助，结果根据资料统计，日本散户投资人，他们是把钱汇出去买美国商品。连日本人都不相信日本的股市会涨起来、日本的经济会好。
2. 日本的经济起落，得十年这个关键数字。
3. 1960年到1980年，长达20年的时间，日本汇率是走贬的。日本经济全球第一。全世界很多东西都是日本制造。日本经济强得不得了，但强到美国人眼红了。
4. 所以1980年到1990年，美国开始打压日本，透过了广场协议、半导体协议，结果打得日本苦哈哈。本来走贬得日圆变成在1990年之后呈现了走升的日圆。还升破了1美元兑换100以下的日圆。造成了日本经济陷入通缩的30年。
5. 2012年，安倍当选上自民党的总裁，尔后担任首相，种下了日本经济崛起的重要的种子。
6. 因为宽松的货币政策，安倍的三支箭让2022年的日圆，贬破120块的大关卡，然后120、130、140、150。
7. 日圆贬到33年来的新低，日本股市涨到了30000点重要大关卡，日本股市冲上33年新高。
8. 现在的日本经济，即将要结束通缩，再次伟大、再次崛起，出现J曲线效应。
9. 日圆呈现了走贬，大家觉得货币贬值了、购买力变弱了，连日本人都害怕。反而日本以外的人去买日本的相关商品。股神巴菲特布局日本的五大商社眼光之独到。
10. 日本股市从来没涨过、日本经济从来没崛起过。但J曲线后半段才是精彩的。
11. 日本结束通缩，日本经济再次崛起机率，机率是大的。

《日本主題系列》｜第134集｜日股創33年新高.股淨比卻長期委屈 十年一遇行情如何把握?日央為何難改變寬鬆政策?【元大投顧財金頻道-理財最(https://youtu.be/ssI1orEoID4)

主持人的总结：-

1. 任何东西都不是比单一数字的绝对值。
2. 日本股市，从8000多点，涨到了约33000点，涨了3倍之多。何谓多？
3. 如果看股净比，净值不断地在做增加。或者是看本益比，日本企业的获利能力EPS不断地在做增加。股价涨的速度、力道、幅度，却跟不上EPS跟净值。意味有更大的实力跟底气继续涨。现在的本益比跟股净比，还处在低档的理由所在。
4. 日本经济才刚刚正在崛起，只因为架构在日圆的走贬。日圆一贬，日本制造，同样的日圆换算成美元，现在可是打折了。所以有利于他的出口。
5. 日本股市的走强到底靠谁来带动？安倍当上自民党的总裁是2012年，到了去年2022年，日本股市还在涨。因为极度宽松，安倍的三支箭推升了、造就了日本的制造业不断地投资、赚钱。
6. 日本制造业指数与东证指数，原本亦步亦趋，慢慢的在2012年之后，拉大他的幅度。换句话说，在日圆贬值趋势之下，主要的受惠者是外销为导向。日本制造，产品有国际竞争力，因为是品质保证。
7. 以上的成绩是来自于日本极度宽松、日圆的走贬，日本央行植田和男不太可能随意扭转宽松。因为日本股市ETF最大买家为日本央行跟退休基金。如果现在收紧货币政策的话，股市没了资金，会跌。受害最重的是日本央行跟退休基金。
8. 日债，日本政府公债持有人为日本央行、保险业者、银行业者等等。如果真的升息了，债殖利率会往上、债的价格就会往下掉，银行、还有包括保险业者持有这么多的债，价格一走跌，要提列损失，植田和男不会这么做。
9. 短时间来看，或者是一段大概有一年多的时间，依旧会保持宽松、日圆走贬，让通膨稳在2%以上。植田和男不是要控制通膨。反而要让通膨再次复见，让货币政策维持宽松。在通膨以及日圆走贬之下，让经济正式崛起跟扭转。

167 Endowment Plan of a friend (cont.) 朋友的储蓄保单（续）

 167 Endowment Plan of a friend (cont.) 朋友的储蓄保单（续）

 My last post talked about my friend's endowment policy, where I asked him to find out how many they waited before maturity value paid out.

He managed to find the policy, snap shot a few pages to me. I calculated the rate of return, replied him, but he is a bit sad.

So the premium paying period for the endowment policy is 20 years. At the end of 20 years, there will be a maturity value. In the first 20 years, annual premium was RM1332, maturity value is RM34019。

Internal rate of return is 2.27%, as shown below.

Reverse calculate to check whether 2.27% counted by spreadsheet is correct or wrong. (Exact interest rate should be 2.2717%)

My friend is sad because the internal rate of return is even lower than FD rate. Past 25 years FD rate in Malaysia are as below. (Individual banks may have launched better rates, but I don't have any data.)

If the premium had been put in FD, how much will the difference be? (Individual banks may have launched better rates, but since I don't have any data, I rely on data in above table.)

It turns out the difference is a meagre RM1500!

On hindsight, my friend thinks he might as well put the money in bond fund to make more money. He said if bond funds can returned 5.5% per annum, it will be RM49012 after 20 years. Then it will be a difference of RM15000. 

Well, what can we derived?

1. Insurance or savings or investment are different products. If that product is deemed to be suitable for buyer during buying time, it is the the best product. No point regretting later.
2. Since insurance or savings or investment are different products, they should be complementing each other, not competing. If something bad happened, insurance came to rescue. When nothing happened, investment plays its role.
3. When the investment horizon can be as long as 20, 30 years, too small an investment amount won't create jaw dropping total sum. In the early stage, the investment amount can be small, but as salary increase, so must the investment value. Just think of our EPF, who didn't start with twenty thirty fifty bucks, then proceed to a hundred, two hundred, three hundred and so on until it become a huge amount because of compounding interest.
4. When the investment horizon can be as long as 20, 30 years, investing in a too conservative tool is a waste of time. At the very least, one can create a portfolio of high and low risk products, to increase the rate of return. We can see the difference of 3% and 5.5% from the above discussion.

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上一篇说到朋友的储蓄保单，就是要他去问清楚还完供期后等了多少年才拿到最终价值。

他把保单给找了出来，拍了几张照片给我看。把回酬率算了一算，告诉了他，不想朋友有点儿伤心了。

原来该储蓄保单总共要还20年，第20年到期后可以拿到最终价值。头20年，每年的保费是RM1332。最终拿到的最终价值为RM34019。

回酬率2.27%，如下。

反向试算2.27%利率对或错。（切确是2.2717%）。

朋友伤心是因为回酬率少过定期存款利率。马来西亚过去25年的定期存款利率如下图。（个别银行可能曾推出更加优惠的利率，我没有资料。）

那如果那些年的那些钱放在定期存款，结果差别多少呢？（个别银行可能曾推出更加优惠的利率，我没有资料，就只能用以上的资料试算。）

咦，差别竟然只有RM1500！

朋友觉得要是早知道，倒不如就投资于债券型基金，可以拿到更高的总额。他说如果债券型基金有5.5%的回酬率，那20年就有RM49012。如此就有RM15000的差别了。

到此可以怎样说呢？

1. 保险、储蓄、投资是不同的产品。在那个时候某个产品适合买者的需要，那个产品就是当下最适合的产品。事后不要再懊悔了。
2. 保险、储蓄、投资既然是不同的产品。应该成为互补，而非有我没他。万一发生什么事时，保险发挥功能。而如果没事发生，投资发挥功能。
3. 当投资年限可以跨度20、30年，太小的投资金额就创造不出称羡的总额。因此，初期金额可以小，但随着薪水的增加，宜适度增加投资金额以期创造更大的总数。就想我们的公积金啊，谁不是刚开始时几十块钱几十块钱，然后慢慢变一百、两百、三百，又利滚利的越来越多。
4. 当投资年限可以跨度20、30年，仅投资太过保守的投资标的，太可惜了。至少至少也应该有一个高低风险搭配的组合，适度提高投资报酬率。以上可以看到3%跟5.5%的差别。

165 China funds: Lump Sum vs Regular Savings 中国基金之单笔投资PK定期定额投资

165 China funds: Lump Sum vs Regular Savings 中国基金之单笔投资PK定期定额投资

With regards to China funds, the past three years was indeed quite a torture. Ever since China funds hit their peaks in early 2021, it has been on downtrend for more than 2 years. From their peaks, the current level are 40-50% lower.

It was widely expected with the opening up of China, there would be a bull in China stock market. However, recent released data showed China's economy recovery seems very weak. Analysts interviewed by radios expects we won't see China bull market this year.

When it comes to investing, it is either doing lump sum investment or regular savings. I was wondering what would the situation be like, of the two, in this type of long term downtrend. So, I go to  https://www.fsmone.com.my , to use the Portfolio Simulator and RSP Calculator to do some simulation. (I simply use this site because readers can always double check my results.)

I chose 6 China funds for this simulation. And the result is as below.

The result suggest no big difference.

OK, I said China funds hit peak two years ago. What would the situation be if we do lump sum investment and regular savings from then. Let's see.

Ha, now we can the difference is quite big. Lump sum investment loss way more than regular savings. In downtrend, lump sum investors has big pressure.

Of course, in uptrend, lump sum investment will reap higher profit. Below is the performance of US fund and technology fund.

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对于中国基金，过去三年的确很难熬。中国基金在2021年头触顶后，连续跌了两年有多。如果从顶峰算起，目前的位阶大概跌了4、5成。

今年原本预期中国解封之后，可以迎来期待已久的股市涨潮，随着最近出炉的一些数字似乎显示中国经济的复苏力度有点儿弱。受电台访问的分析师估计今年可能还不能看到中国股市涨潮。

那，一般投资基金要不单笔、要不定期定额投资。好奇在这种长期跌势的基金，这两者会有怎样的。因此上 https://www.fsmone.com.my ，用网站的 Portfolio Simulator 和 RSP Calculator 来试算。（用这个网站是因为读者可以进行检查。）

我选了6个中国基金来试算。结果如下。

以上结果显示单笔或定期定额似乎差别不大。

OK，刚才说中国基金是在两年前触顶，那从两年前开始单笔和定期定额又有怎样的差别吗？来看看吧。

现在就可以看到很大的差别咯。单笔投资的亏损幅度要比定期定额大很多。在跌势中，单笔投资的压力很大捏。

当然，在涨势中，单笔投资的甜头就比较大咯。以下是美国基金以及科技基金的表现。

163 Simple Equity-Bond Asset Allocation vs Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio

 163 Simple Equity-Bond Asset Allocation vs Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio 简易的股债资产配置 vs 达里欧的全天候资产配置

Before this, I did a simulation on Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio using Malaysian Unit Trust.

After that, I keep thinking what will the result like if it is a simple Equity-Bond Asset Allocation.

So, today I run another simulation to compare.

Same thing, I am going to use FundSuperMart's Portfolio Simulator.

Assumptions:-

Initial Investment: RM100,000

Backtest Period: 10-Year

Rebalancing: Quarterly

Wholesale Fund: No

Funds to use:-

Manulife Invesment U.S. Equity

Amanahraya Syariah Trust

Amanahraya Unit Trust

RHB Gold and General

Manulife Global Resources

Allocation for Portfolio 1 & 2

The Result:

Observation:

Seems like both portfolio has similar returns, with volatility of Portfolio 1 slightly higher than Portfolio 2.

For those who has smaller initial investment, e.g. RM10,000, they can employ Portfolio 2 for ease of allocation of capital.

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在这之前，我用 本地信托基金试算了达里欧的全天候资产配置。

接着，我就想知道如果我只用最简单的股债资产配置的话，结果会是如何呢？

今天，再来做一次新的试算来比较看看吧。

同样的，我用 FundSuperMart 的 Portfolio Simulator.

假设：

初始投资额 Initial Investment: RM100,000

回测期限 Backtest Period: 10-Year

再平衡 Rebalancing: Quarterly

Wholesale Fund: No

基金：

Manulife Invesment U.S. Equity

Amanahraya Syariah Trust

Amanahraya Unit Trust

RHB Gold and General

Manulife Global Resources

组合 1 & 2 的配置如下：

成绩如下：-

观察：

两者的回酬似乎不相上下，注意到组合 1 的波动稍微高于组合 2。

对于只有较低投资额的人，举例 RM10,000，他们可以直接运用组合 2 因为比较容易分配资金。

162 An Experiment: Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio using Malaysia Unit Trust 实验：用马来西亚信托基金尝试重建达里欧全天候资产组合

162 An Experiment: Build Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio using Malaysia Unit Trust 一个实验：用马来西亚信托基金尝试重建达里欧全天候资产组合

Who is Ray Dalio?

Raymond Thomas Dalio is an American billionaire investor and hedge fund manager, who has served as co-chief investment officer of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, since 1985. (Source: Wikipedia)

What makes Ray Dalio to create All-weather Portfolio?

The principles behind All Weather relate to answering a deceptively straightforward question explored by Ray with co-Chief Investment Officer Bob Prince and other early colleagues at Bridgewater — what kind of investment portfolio would you hold that would perform well across all environments, be it a devaluation or something completely different? (Source:- The All Weather Story)

What is the breakdown of All Weather Portfolio?

Weight Investment Themes

30.00 % U.S., Large Cap

40.00 % Bonds, U.S., Long-Term

15.00 % Bonds, U.S., Intermediate-Term

7.50 % Gold

7.50 % Commodity, Broad Diversified

Breakdown the All Weather Portfolio using Malaysia Unit Trust

In fact, if investors have stock trading account that can trade US stocks, he can actually build the portfolio using US' ETF (like VTI etc).

But let say I am more comfortable with local unit trust, can I duplicate a similar portfolio. Let's try to see each category. I will use info from FundSuperMart Malaysia and Morningstar Malaysia.

U.S., Large Cap

In Malaysia, there are two US Equity funds available to retail investors.

• Manulife Investment U.S. Equity Fund - MYR Class
• RHB-GS US Equity Fund

Bonds, U.S., Long-Term and Bonds, U.S., Intermediate-Term

For local unit trust, there is no retail unit trusts invested in US bonds. So, let's replace with local unit trusts. Below is the one I always use.

• Amanahraya Unit Trust Fund
• Amanahraya Shariah Trust Fund

Gold

There are altogether four funds in this category, but only the below two are more than 10 years old.

• RHB Gold And General Fund
• Precious Metals Securities

Commodity, Broad Diversified

For commodities, we search using the word "resources".

• Manulife Global Resources Fund
• RHB Resources Fund

I am going to pick one or two funds from each category. (Warning: This selection is based my personal preference. It is not objective. Please do not follow!)

U.S., Large Cap:- Manulife Investment U.S. Equity Fund - MYR Class

Bonds, U.S., Long-Term and Bonds, U.S., Intermediate-Term:- Amanahraya Unit Trust Fund, Amanahraya Shariah Trust Fund

Gold:- RHB Gold And General Fund

Commodity, Broad Diversified:- Manulife Global Resources Fund

The Returns of Individual Funds

The total returns and annualised returns of each funds are as below chart. I use Chart Center from FundSuperMart Malaysia.

Apparently, if I simply invest in Manulife Investment U.S. Equity Fund - MYR Class, my annual returns for the past 10 years is 14.39%. This is consider very good especially when we consider the recent drop of roughly 25%. However, the volatility — at 22.42% — is very high too.

If I am very kiasi, and were to fully invest in bonds — namely Amanahraya Unit Trust Fund and / or Amanahraya Shariah Trust Fund — my returns 2.79% & 1.94% only. Actually the returns were dragged down because of the effect of US rising interest rate.

How about combined them into a portfolio? The All Weather Portfolio!

For this, I use Portfolio Simulator from FundSuperMart Malaysia. The assumptions are

• Initial Investments:- RM100,000
• Backtest Period: - 10-Yr
• Rebalancing:- Quarterly
• Wholesale Funds:- No

Portfolio 1:-

• 100% Manulife Investment U.S. Equity Fund - MYR Class

Portfolio 2:-

• 30% Manulife Investment U.S. Equity Fund - MYR Class
• 30% Amanahraya Shariah Trust Fund
• 25% Amanahraya Unit Trust Fund
• 7.5% RHB Gold And General Fund
• 7.5% Manulife Global Resources Fund

The results are

The annualised returns for Portfolio 1 is 13.89% (RM100,000 becomes RM367,007). The annualised returns for Portfolio 2 is 7.52% (RM100,000 becomes 206,538).

Portfolio 2 is significantly lower than Portfolio 1, but the chart is much smoother too. Considering the current market situation (equity and bonds tanked together), I think Portfolio 2's returns is very good and not so stressing.

The largest drawdown during the current market crash

From experience, investors always think they are aggressive investors who can tahan market crash, but in fact they are not. See -5%, still can tahan. See -10%, a little bit uneasy. See -15%, maybe cannot tahan liao. See -20%, sell sell sell.

So, let's see how much was the largest drawdown during the current market crash.

The calculation:-

Comparatively, I think losing -6% is less stressful than losing -21%.

Small Conclusion

I think this Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio is very suitable for investors who are seeking higher returns with fairly lower volatility. Most important of all, the portfolio can absorbs unexpected shocks like stock market crash. In the normal situation, bonds will rise when stock market go lower. Likewise, gold and commodities — which has inverse relationship with equity — will also help to lift the portfolio value.

Reminder:- I do not currently own such All Weather Portfolio.

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请问谁是达里欧先生啊？

雷蒙德·托马斯·达利奥（英語：Raymond Thomas Dalio，1949年8月8日）出生于纽约，现居康乃狄克州费尔菲尔德县，是美国对冲基金经理、慈善家。雷·达利奥是桥水基金公司的创始人兼首席執行官，而橋水基金於2013年被列為全世界最大的避險基金公司。（来源：维基百科）

达里欧先生为何要找寻这个全天候投资组合啊？

全天候投资组合背后的原则其实就是为了回答这些人的一个非常简单明了的问题。这些人是达里欧、co-Chief Investment Officer Bob Prince、以及桥水基金早期同事们。这个问题就是 — 怎样的组合才是你想要持有的组合，即任何环境下（货币贬值也好、其他情况也好）都有好的表现的组合? (自己翻译。有错请指教。Source:- The All Weather Story)

全天候投资组合由什么合成啊？

比重  投资主题

30.00 % 美国大型股

40.00 % 美国长期债券

15.00 % 美国短期债券

7.50 % 黄金

7.50 % 一般大宗商品

试试看用本地信托基金合成这个全天候投资组合咧

其实捏，如果投资者有股票投资户头，他们就可以直接买入美国 ETF 来配置这样的全天候投资组合滴。

但是，万一我比较喜欢本地信托基金，可不可以配置接近接近的组合呢？我们一样一样来看。我会用 FundSuperMart Malaysia 和 Morningstar Malaysia 的网站来找资料。

美国大型股

在本地，只有两个美国基金是开放给所有投资者的。

• Manulife Investment U.S. Equity Fund - MYR Class
• RHB-GS US Equity Fund

美国长期债券、美国短期债券

本地信托基金，没有专门投资美国债券的。所以我用本地基金来代替。以下是我常用的。

• Amanahraya Unit Trust Fund
• Amanahraya Shariah Trust Fund

黄金

这个组别里面有四个基金，但是只有两个基金有十年历史。

• RHB Gold And General Fund
• Precious Metals Securities

一般大宗商品

大宗商品，我们用关键字 "resources"。

• Manulife Global Resources Fund
• RHB Resources Fund

现在啊，我从每个组别选一两个基金。 （提醒！以下所选的全部是根据我的喜好，并不是客观的分析。请不要贸贸然跟喔！盈亏自负！）

美国大型股:- Manulife Investment U.S. Equity Fund - MYR Class

美国长期债券，美国短期债券:- Amanahraya Unit Trust Fund, Amanahraya Shariah Trust Fund

黄金:- RHB Gold And General Fund

一般大宗商品:- Manulife Global Resources Fund

各个基金的回酬

各个基金的回酬如下图所示。我用 FundSuperMart Malaysia 的 Chart Center 。

很明显的，如果我单押 Manulife Investment U.S. Equity Fund - MYR Class ，我的10年复利回酬是 14.39%。以现在的环境，美股跌了大概25%，还有这样的回酬算是非常了不起的。可是啊，波动率 — 22.42% — 也是很高捏。

假设我是怕死的投资者，全部单押债券的话 — Amanahraya Unit Trust Fund 或者 Amanahraya Shariah Trust Fund — 我的回酬只有区区 2.79% & 1.94% 罢了。这样的回酬其实是被美国升息的影响拉低的。

啊，如果把他们做成组合会怎样？全天候投资组合喔！

现在就要用到 FundSuperMart Malaysia 的 Portfolio Simulator 。所做的假设如下：-

• 初始投资额 Initial Investments:- RM100,000
• 回测期限 Backtest Period: - 10-Yr
• 再平衡 Rebalancing:- Quarterly 每季
• Wholesale Funds:- No

组合 1:-

• 100% Manulife Investment U.S. Equity Fund - MYR Class

组合 2:-

• 30% Manulife Investment U.S. Equity Fund - MYR Class
• 30% Amanahraya Shariah Trust Fund
• 25% Amanahraya Unit Trust Fund
• 7.5% RHB Gold And General Fund
• 7.5% Manulife Global Resources Fund

成绩来咯

组合1的复利回酬为 13.89% (RM100,000 滚成 RM367,007). 组合2的复利回酬为 7.52% (RM100,000 滚成 206,538).

组合2的回酬明显低于组合，但整条线图明显平顺很多，代表着波动比较低。依目前的市场来说组合2的回酬亮眼又比较没有压力。

本波股市下跌最大跌幅

倚老卖老，投资者总是高估自己是激进型投资者，即可以忍受市场暴跌，事实却又很残忍。当他们看到 -5%，还可以顶。看到 -10%，有一点紧张了。看到 -15%，应该顶不顺了。看到 -20%，快点卖，天要塌了。

那就让我们来看看此次股市下跌的跌幅。

计算如下：-

相比而言，个人相信亏损 -6% 的压力应该远远低过亏损 -21%。

小总结

个人认为达里欧的这个全天候投资组合非常适合那些要稍高回酬、稍低风险的投资者，比如退休人士。尤为重要的，此组合能承受股市暴跌的震荡。在正常的情况下，股市下跌、债券会上。黄金以及一般大宗商品也能提振组合的价值，因为这两种与股市也是呈相反的联动。

再次提醒。本人目前没有全天候投资组合！

159 Private Managed Accounts (PMA) - your answer to local shares investment 本地股票投资

 159 Private Managed Accounts (PMA) - your answer to local shares investment 本地股票投资

A lot of investors may be interested in investing in shares, but without the knowledge or time to do so. The current work around method is investing in unit trust to indirectly investing in shares. Now, investors can consider using PMA to hold shares.

What is PMA?

PMA is very similar to unit trust or fund of funds, depending on the target investment. The major difference between unit trust and PMA is management of investors' money.

In unit trust, all investors' money are put into a pool or a unit trust fund and then managed by a fund manager. During redemption time, investor will get back his investment in money only.

While in PMA, fund manager managed an investor's money separately from other people's money. During redemption time, investor has the choice of getting back his investment in money or shares etc.

Simple analogy to understand PMA

Let's say today I found a very good business that is worth investing, but I do not know how to run the business, I can invest in the business and become a sleeping partner. All I need to do is periodically spot check on the business or the account. At one day if I want to withdraw from the business, I get back my share in money. This is unit trust.

Let's say today I found a very good business that is worth investing, but I do not how to run the business, instead of joining the business as a sleeping partner, I decided to come out with the capital and employ a capable manager to run it for me. All I need to do is periodically spot check on the business or the account. At the same time, I may or may not want learn how to run the business. At one day, if I decided to terminate the manager's contract, (1) I can decide whether to sell the business and pocket the money, or (2) I can take over the business and run it myself. This is PMA.

Why PMA?

From the simple analogy, you can get the idea PMA is building an investment portfolio for your future. Why do I say so? Because we have many PMA mandate that may be beneficial to investors.

Examples:-

PMA Blue Chips - In this portfolio, Phillip's fund manager will invest investor's money into blue chips stocks.

PMA Dividend Enhanced - In this portfolio, Phillip's fund manager will help investors to invest in dividend stocks.

PMA Opportunity - In this portfolio, Phillip's fund manager will help investors to in small- and mid-cap stocks.

PMA UT - For investors who are not comfortable investing in stocks, PMA UT invest in a portfolio of unit trust funds that fund manager identified to be the best in the category.

So, imagine you are still working and you build your blue chips stocks or dividend stocks. By the time you retire, you can transfer all the shares into your personal CDS account and start getting those dividends.

PMA suitable for you?

I like to encourage investors to have a retirement fund making up of diversified portfolio. You must have EPF, PRS, unit trust and shares.

For shares, investors may not have the knowledge or time to invest. Why not give it to professional fund managers? Investors can top up regularly and build up a portfolio of shares for retirement.

I especially encourage investors to have blue chip stocks and dividend stocks. During retirement, we want passive income - dividend from EPF, unit trust, and shares.

Why not build it now instead of waiting until retirement? Working years are the prime investing time because we have regular income, sufficient time for portfolio to grow and top up to make grow bigger.

After retirement, we may have become too conservative to invest!

* * * * * * * * *

 159 Private Managed Accounts (PMA) 本地股票投资的方案

有许多投资者有兴趣投资股票但却没有相关能力1或时间。目前只能透过信托基金来间接投资股票。投资者不妨考虑透过 PMA 持有股票。

什么是 PMA?

PMA 是辉立独有的投资产品，它类似信托基金或是 fund of funds，这就取决于投资在哪里。PMA与信托基金最大的差别在于投资者的钱如何管理。

在信托基金里，所以投资者的钱都会放进同一个基金里，然后由基金经理管理。在赎回时，投资者只以钱的方式拿回投资。

而在 PMA 呢，基金经理单单管理某位投资者的钱，不能把这位投资者的钱跟别的投资者的钱参在一起管理。在赎回时，投资者可以选择拿钱或是拿股票。

理解 PMA 的简单比喻

假设今天我发现了某个有利可图的生意，但我又不会管理，我可以参股成为睡觉的股东。我就是不时不时的查看生意或是账目。到某一天我决定退股啦，我只能以金钱的方式拿回我的那一份。这就是信托基金啦。

又假设我发现了某个有利可图的生意，但我不会管理，我可以出资然后请有本事的经理来管理。我就不时不时的查看生意或是账目，甚至从中学习。知道有一天时机成熟了，哦我决定不需要那位经理来管理了，我可以卖掉整盘生意或是自己接着做。当然也表示将来我可以让孩子继承生意喔。这就是PMA啦。

为何选 PMA?

从以上的比喻，你应该可以理解可以通过 PMA 来建立未来的股票投资组合。怎说呢？PMA 里有几个组合挺好的。

例如:-

PMA Blue Chips - 辉立的基金经理会把投资者的钱投资在蓝筹股。

PMA Dividend Enhanced - 辉立的基金经理会把投资者的钱投资在有派股息的股票里面。

PMA Opportunity - 辉立的基金经理会把投资者的钱投资在中、小型股票里。

PMA UT - 对于还不能接受股票的投资者，基金经理会把投资者的钱投资在有潜能又是最好的信托基金里面。

所以呢，试想你还在工作却已经开始建造你的蓝筹股或是股息股，以便你退休时，你可以把这些好股票转入你私人的 CDS 来收股息。多好呢？

PMA 适合你吗？

我乐意鼓励投资者把自己的退休金建造成多方收入的组合。你一定要有公积金、私人退休金、信托基金以及股票。

股票呢，不是每个人有能力或时间投资的。即如此，何不交给专业的基金经理呢？投资者可以不时的加码来创造更多股票组合供退休用。

我尤其鼓励投资者拥有蓝筹股和股息股。此类股票一般都属于大型的、赚钱的公司，所以比较安稳点。退休时，我们就像可以收到被动收入嘛 - 来自公积金、信托基金和股票的股息嘛。

因此，与其等到退休后，何不现在开始呢？乘着还在工作时仍然有固定收入、又有足够时间让投资增值变大时，开始吧。

退休后，可能我们已经变得保守而不敢投资了呢！

158 Do I prefer single country funds or regional funds?

 158 Do I prefer single country funds or regional funds?

In short, single country funds.

Why?

1. Easier to monitor. Each country has an index, easier to track the index of a single country. Example, track STI for Singapore funds, JKSE for Indonesia funds. If, example, you see an index drop, you know you can get cheaper fund price if you want to take advantage to do dollar cost averaging.

2. Easier to predict the closing price trend of the fund. Overseas funds' fund price normally come in 2 days later, so easier to track the index and predict the price trend. When you need to do switching or redemption, you can know you'll get a higher or lower price by seeing the index. You may not know the actual price, but knowing it is higher or lower than now.

3. The underlying asset is within a single country only. If a fund is Singapore fund, majority of the fund will be in Singapore. You know you won't order a durian but it become apple. I once bought a Far East fund with most of its investment in China, Japan etc.; but who knows few years later its allocation became majority in Malaysia.

4. Regional funds may invest in countries I don't favour or duplicated in my portfolio. Example, an Asia Pacific fund may invest in Japan and it could happened I may think Japan market is over-priced. Or an Emerging Market fund may invest quite a lot in China while I may already have China funds.

That said, the pre-conditions are:-

1. Capital. If I have enough capital to manually select the countries. If I only have few thousands, then maybe a regional fund.

2. No other choices. Two situations: First, example is I may want to invest in Thailand but there is no such fund in Malaysia, so I may use ASEAN fund that overweight Thailand. Second is let's say I may want a single country fund but it's not approved under EPf investment scheme, I may need to look for regional fund.

 158 我比较喜欢单一国家型基金还是区域型基金呢？

简单一句，是单一国家型基金。

为何？

1. 容易追踪。每个国家有自己的指数，那追踪单一指数容易过追踪一揽子指数。例如，新加坡基金就追踪海峡指数、印尼基金就追踪雅加达综合指数。若是看到某个指数大跌，就晓得基金报价也会变得便宜，这就容易进行摊平啦。

2. 比较容易预测基金的报价趋势。国外基金的报价通常会迟两天报出，所以比较容易追踪指数并预测报价趋势。当我们有意进行基金转换或是赎回，看单一指数就可以大约知道可以以更高或是更低的价位交易。当然无法知道真正的价位，而是知道更高或更低。区域型基金因牵涉多个指数，比较难预测整体的高低。

3. 基金后边的真实投资仅在一个国家罢了。新加坡基金顾名思义绝大部分投资在新加坡。买的是榴莲绝不会收到苹果的意思。我曾买过远东基金（投资于中国、日本等）但几年后发觉绝大部分竟然投资在马来西亚！

4. 区域型基金或许会投资于我不喜欢的国家或是重复的国家。例如，亚太平洋基金可能投资在日本而我可能觉得日本市场已经过热。抑或新兴市场基金可能投资于中国，而我已经另外有中国基金了。

当然，先决条件如下：-

1. 资本。如果我有足够的资本，就自行配置。如果只有区区几千元，可能就买区域型基金吧。

2. 别无选择。两个：其一，比如我想投资泰国而本地没有泰国基金，那可能就选侧重泰国的亚细安基金；其二，如果我要的单一国家型基金不开放于公积金投资，那只好屈就于类似的区域型基金。

157 Regular Savings Plan 2.0 (RSP 2.0)

157 Regular Savings Plan 2.0 (RSP 2.0)

RSP 2.0 is the total upgrade of RSP 1.0 and RSP 1.5.

Under RSP 2.0, all monthly top up will be channeled into cost-efficient unit trust investment platform (aka Wrap Account).

Under this cost-efficient platform, investors enjoy lower upfront service fee, and unrestricted free switching. There is an annual wrap fee though.

By using this cost-efficient platform, investors first pay lesser fee to lower his investment cost (faster to make profit). The difference can be as high as 2%-3% depending on funds. Meaning the same fund can be charge different service charge / service fee because of different platform use.

And investors can always use the best funds according to market conditions. Example before this China funds was leading but recently European funds has been rising. Under this cost-efficient platform, investors can choose and invest in the best funds in the market, at NAV price.

However, to achieve the privilege of free switching, investors has to pay a annual fee (Wrap fee). With that, investors need not be bound by a fund company's product only.

Under normal RSP 1.0, agents will not ask investors to take profit. Under RSP 1.5 and RSP 2.0, agent will ask investors to take profit and then re-deploy the redeemed amount into market by doing manual monthly switching.

It is very important to take profit. Market can be very volatile. By taking profit, investors can lock in profit and use it to re-invest again. The benefits of taking profits are:-

1) after long term of monthly top up, the total amount invested is no different to lump sum investment. Any large drop could have a big impact for the investment.

2) by locking profit, investors can use the profit or let profit be invested again, and thus compound the interest. So if market still go up, investors still enjoy new profits.

3) by locking profit, investors can wait for market drop to buy more cheap units.

4) letting a profit investment to become a loss investment is really a painful experience.

5) after locking in profit, investors will be very happy to see market drops. His emotion is totally different than letting whole investment floating with the market. For he knows he will make more profit by capitalizing the market movement, but he must have his first pot of silver (and his first pot of silver is exactly his redeemed profit investment).

So, if you have been investing for a long time, at a substantial amount with profit, you should consider doing your own RSP 2.0. However, if your platform is not switching friendly, then you should think somewhere else. Like I mentioned before, I transfer most of my investments from a very famous unit trust company into Phillip because it is not cost-efficient to do switching there.

156 Regular Savings Plan 1.5 (RSP 1.5)

156 Regular Savings Plan 1.5 (RSP 1.5)

Yesterday I wrote about our normal regular savings plan (RSP), where I termed it as RSP 1.0.

Today, I am going to write about RSP 1.5 (again, I created the term)

In RSP 1.0, when an investors accumulated sum becomes very big (e.g. RM100k), the whole investment is no difference from a lump sum investment.

In lump sum investment, any slight fluctuations in fund price will have a big impact on the value of the investment. Same in RSP 1.0. The investor will feel pain when seeing value drop.

The way to avoid earned profit from getting thinner or totally gone, is to take profit. The problem with taking profit is when should we invest back or where to invest next.

When one market is good, it usually means another market is also good. So it makes no sense to come out from this fund and go into another fund especially if they invest in similar sector/industry.

In RSP 1.5, we modified the whole investing process.

We start with an regular savings plan. After three to five years when the sum get big, we will take profit by redeeming the fund and re-invest into a cost-efficient platform. To be fair to clients, the re-invest is done at zero sales charge.

The original regular savings plan will keep on running in the original platform. Repeat the redemption and re-invest process after 3-5 years or profit target hit.

In the new platform, the whole amount will be put into bond funds and money market funds.Then, we split the amount into 30 parts and re-invest into equity fund every month. Whenever profit taking target is hit, the money in equity fund will be switched to bond funds again. Repeat the whole process.

This way, an investor can take profit when market is running up and re-deploy the money into market when market drop. As the market rapidly goes up, the frequency to take profit should happen faster. Hopefully investor can be in time to get out of market before a fall, or reduce the amount bought at high price. As the market goes down, the money in bond fund can be use to buy more units to expedite the process to make profit.

As the money keep on accumulating in original regular savings plan and cost-efficient platform, the monthly investment amount also becomes higher and higher. But the risk is greatly reduced.

Actually, the ideal situation is straight way implement RSP 2.0 (explain in later article). But because of Phillip Mutual's cost efficient platform requires a monthly RSP of minimum RM2,000, RSP 1.5 is the alternative method.

To give an idea of cost difference. Example of upfront service charge, normal unit trust platform will charge service charge of 5%-6.5% (depending on the fund). In cost efficient platform, upfront service fee is 3% only.

I also have some small investment in a very famous big fund house. I find it very costly to do frequent switching there because of the high switching fee.

Whoever familiar with unit trust investing, will know one of the strategy is re-balancing of equity-bond ratio. RSP 1.5 and RSP 2.0, though not re-balancing, are methods to take profit.

155 Regular Savings Plan 1.0 (RSP 1.0)

155 Regular Savings Plan 1.0 (RSP 1.0)

Regular Savings Plan 1.0 (RSP 1.0) is a term I coined myself to differentiate the different types of RSP I learned and trying to adapt into practice. This means I already coined another two terms RSP 1.5 and RSP 2.0.

Today I am noting down what is RSP 1.0.

In short, RSP 1.0 is the strategy of Dollar Cost Averaging we have been practicing in unit trust investment all the while.

In basic, it is a periodic deduction of investment amount from investor's bank account into unit trust funds. The process is automated, the amount is fixed, the date is fixed.

RSP 1.0 has been proven to worked for long-term investment strategy, provided investor selects the correct funds.

RSP 1.0 works by accumulating more units during down market and accumulating lesser units up market. The chance to buy more during low price allow investor to lower down his investment costs.

I have tried to do a simulation using RSP 1.0 and RSP 2.0.

After 10 years, RSP 1.0 has higher investment amount but with higher fluctuations. On the other hand, RSP 2.0 has slightly lower amount with lower fluctuations.

Both RSP 1.0 and RSP 2.0 easily beats my expected rate of return of 9%.

When an investor's investment capital becomes very big (e.g. more than RM100k), a slight fluctuations in fund price will see a big fluctuations in ringgit value. E.g. a 1% price drop means a investor's floating amount reduced by RM1,000 for every RM100k. Vice versa.

During market correction, a drop of 10% is not unusual at all.

Investor's feeling will be very emotional during big market correction like in Mar 2020.

To lesser the impact of investment value reduction, moving to RSP 1.5 and RSP 2.0 is worth considering. I will explain RSP 1.5 and RSP 2.0 in later article.

In Phillip Mutual, monthly deduction lesser than RM2,000, can only practice RSP 1.0 and RSP 1.5.

Like in many fund house, process in RSP 1.0 is automatically running. To practice RSP 1.5 and RSP 2.0, the process is unfortunately very manual because there is no such system, and requires a very cost-efficient platform.

154 RCEP is signed. Theme for ASEAN funds?

154 RCEP is signed. Theme for ASEAN funds?

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP; /ˈɑːrsɛp/ AR-sep) is a free trade agreement between the Asia-Pacific nations of Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam. [Source: Wikipedia]

RCEP was signed on Nov 15, 2020. Southeeast Asia is expected to benefit from RCEP. In figure below, we can see that ASEAN funds are making gains recently. Previously I only see names for technology, China, Indonesia, then European funds. Is it time to invest in ASEAN funds?

In a sense, I simplify RCEP = China + ASEAN + Japan + Australia. (Ignore New Zealand, Korea because we do not have those single country fund in Malaysia.)

China + ASEAN

There is only four funds invested in China + ASEAN.

1 Maybank Greater China ASEAN Equity-I Fund Class A (MYR)

2 Maybank Greater China ASEAN Equity-I Fund Class B (USD)

3 Maybank Greater China ASEAN Equity-I Fund Class C (USD)

4 PB China ASEAN Equity Fund

The overall return for those funds are

According to Morningstar Malaysia, for Maybank Greater China ASEAN Equity-I Fund Class A (MYR),

- data as at Apr 30, 2020, 56.58% invested in China, 34.69% invested in Indonesia + Singapore + Malaysia + Thailand + Philippines.

- this fund is less than 10 years old. The 5 Year annualised return is 4.57%.

According to Morningstar Malaysia, for PB China ASEAN Equity Fund,

- data as at Jun 30, 2020, 70.30% invested in China, 22.89% invested in Singapore + Malaysia + Indonesia + Thailand

- as at Nov 19, 2020, the 10 Years annualised return is 5.01%.

ASEAN funds

As sorted out using Morningstar Malaysia, there are 26 ASEAN funds.

- 5/26 more than 10 years old. PB ASEAN Dividend is the top performer with 10 Year annualised return of 5.21%

- 10/26 at least 5 years old. United ASEAN Discovery Fund is the top performer with 5 year anualised return of 10.63%.

- 17/26 at least 3 years old. United ASEAN Discovery Fund is the top performer with 5 year anualised return of 13.23%.

Let's look at what countries they in invested in. Below is table for fund that is more than 10 years old only. The top five are the bigger countries — Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand.

Observation (so far)

In categories above, regardless of whether it is China + ASEAN, or pure ASEAN funds, it seems to me the long term annualised returns don't meet my expected rate of return. Seems rather hard to simply buy and hold.

What if I buy single country fund one by one?

Indonesia funds

Singapore funds

Philippines funds? Thailand funds?

There are no Philippines funds or Thailand funds in Malaysia market.

How about Malaysia funds?

Malaysia large cap (conventional)

Malaysia small cap (conventional)

Remember my dumb simplification where I put RCEP = China + ASEAN + Japan + Australia? Don't forget our China funds. In fact, I suspect China will benefit most from RCEP because

- China is looking for alternative market to export their products since they have trade tensions with US

- China or Greater China can export higher technology goods to ASEAN

- ASEAN (except maybe Singapore) or even Australia are mainly commodity exporter, China needs a lot of them

If that is so, China leh? Can ah?

Then, that means all ASEAN funds, Singapore funds, Indonesia funds not worth to invest? Well, I think this is some opportunity to buy at dip too. The strategy matters.

As a final reminder, this post is only for discussion or my note only. I am not promoting any funds.