Investors will start to count their losses:- both from the investment and the interest from Fixed Deposits. Then they will start to contemplate to redeem their investments; forever assuming "investments" are equal to "lose money".
I see this after the 2008/09 market crash and now I see the same after the recent correction due to oil and gas.
That's why I think all investors, or general public, should read words of wisdom from Warren Buffett, for example. I like the below paragraphs from his annual letter 2014.
The
unconventional, but inescapable, conclusion to be drawn from the past fifty
years is that it has been far safer to invest in a diversified
collection of American businesses than to invest in securities – Treasuries,
for example – whose values have been tied to American currency. That was also
true in the preceding half-century, a period including the Great Depression and
two world wars. Investors should heed this history. To one degree or another it
is almost certain to be repeated during the next century.
Stock
prices will always be far more volatile than cash-equivalent holdings. Over
the long term, however, currency-denominated instruments are riskier investments
– far riskier investments – than widely-diversified stock portfolios
that are bought over time and that are owned in a manner invoking only token
fees and commissions. That lesson has not customarily been taught in business
schools, where volatility is almost universally used as a proxy for risk.
Though this pedagogic assumption makes for easy teaching, it is dead wrong:
Volatility is far from synonymous with risk. Popular formulas that
equate the two terms lead students, investors and CEOs astray.
It is
true, of course, that owning equities for a day or a week or a year is far
riskier (in both nominal and purchasing-power terms) than leaving funds in
cash-equivalents. That is relevant to certain investors – say, investment banks
– whose viability can be threatened by declines in asset prices and which might
be forced to sell securities during depressed markets. Additionally, any party
that might have meaningful near-term needs for funds should keep appropriate
sums in Treasuries or insured bank deposits.
For the great
majority of investors, however, who can – and should – invest with a
multi-decade horizon, quotational declines are unimportant. Their focus should
remain fixed on attaining significant gains in purchasing power over their
investing lifetime. For them, a diversified equity portfolio, bought over
time, will prove far less risky than dollar-based securities.
If the
investor, instead, fears price volatility, erroneously viewing it as a measure
of risk, he may, ironically, end up doing some very risky things. Recall, if
you will, the pundits who six years ago bemoaned falling stock prices and
advised investing in “safe” Treasury bills or bank certificates of deposit.
People who heeded this sermon are now earning a pittance on sums they had
previously expected would finance a pleasant retirement. (The S&P 500 was
then below 700; now it is about 2,100.) If not for their fear of meaningless
price volatility, these investors could have assured themselves of a good
income for life by simply buying a very low-cost index fund whose dividends
would trend upward over the years and whose principal would grow as well (with
many ups and downs, to be sure).
Investors,
of course, can, by their own behavior, make stock ownership highly
risky. And many do. Active trading, attempts to “time” market movements,
inadequate diversification, the payment of high and unnecessary fees to
managers and advisors, and the use of borrowed money can destroy the decent
returns that a life-long owner of equities would otherwise enjoy. Indeed,
borrowed money has no place in the investor’s tool kit: Anything can
happen anytime in markets. And no advisor, economist, or TV commentator
– and definitely not Charlie nor I – can tell you when chaos will occur.
Market
forecasters will fill your ear but will never fill your wallet.
The
commission of the investment sins listed above is not limited to “the little
guy.” Huge institutional investors, viewed as a group, have long underperformed
the unsophisticated index-fund investor who simply sits tight for decades. A
major reason has been fees: Many institutions pay substantial sums to
consultants who, in turn, recommend high-fee managers. And that is a fool’s
game.
There are
a few investment managers, of course, who are very good – though in the short
run, it’s difficult to determine whether a great record is due to luck or
talent. Most advisors, however, are far better at generating high fees than
they are at generating high returns. In truth, their core competence is
salesmanship. Rather than listen to their siren songs, investors – large and
small – should instead read Jack Bogle’s The Little Book of Common
Sense Investing.
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Our mistakes:-
:- wrongly perceived investing share as risky investment simply because the price fluctuation is higher;
:- wrongly perceived shares can only be bought during crisis (even though the fact is most people will see the share price to drop and to rise again without doing anything);
:- ignore effect of inflation to our money but complains of losing purchasing power;
:- wrongly perceived to make money in share is to trade for price difference;
:- do not want to invest for long-term;
:- do not understand to invest in share is to invest in the business (as a shareholder);
:- do not understand share price will eventually reflect the underlying business performance;
:- do not want to learn from the successful but from the mediocre instead;
In Malaysia, Public Bank, Lonpac Insurance, Digi has proved themselves that their share price appreciation over the years. But trading the share by buying high selling low will still cause us losses. The passive investor who bought it and keep it is the one who is going to reaped the fruit of "investing".
We are too easily affected by the daily share price quote. Now I can understand Mr Market better. Mr Market simply quote a price based on his emotion. Ignorant investor will be influenced and act unwisely.
I am seeking clients who understand, or who is willing to understand, investing is to become a shareholder of a business. A successful business will still experience daily price fluctuation. So long as the management is managing the business well, short term price fluctuation should not worry us.
If we think Warren Buffett is too far away from us, please remember we have Mr Cold Eye has been preaching the proper investment principles. Both of them has proved to us investing works and is not risky (they both are in retirement years).
The first step to successful investment is to get our attitude right. Because our worst enemy is ourselves.
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