122 What I learned about market timing and emotion from "Berkshire Hathaway Letter to Shareholders 2017"

What I learned about market timing and emotion from "Berkshire Hathaway Letter to Shareholders 2017"	我从"2017年伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司致股东信"所学到的—进场时机以及心理。
Wow, what a packed Saturday (25/2/2017) it was. I attended a CE Course. And on that night, I get to know Berkshire Hathaway released its 2017 letter to shareholders. Yup, I make it compulsory to read it. I get to do it on Sunday morning, though. And I can't wait to share with friends during the breakfast chit-chat.	上个周末(25/2/2017)真是充实的一天。当天我参加了一个CE课程，到时另外分享我所学习到的。星期六当晚知晓巴菲特的公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦发布了2017年的股东信。这是我必读的。我要到了星期天早上才有时间做到。当我跟朋友吃早餐时又迫不及待的跟他们分享。
It was a long letter. Out of it, many things caught my eyes. I particularly want to share about how we—me included—has failed to be a smart investor.	这是挺长的一封信。当中有许多学习的。现在只想记录一些我们这些所谓投资者常会犯下的错误。
Since the global financial crisis 2008/2009, it is almost ten years. So, sometimes we hear people talking about another crisis may be near the corner. The pessimists will not want to do investments now. Sometimes, I will also think what should I do. What did Buffett say?	2008/2009的全球金融危机迄今过了也快十年了。难怪我们偶尔会听到有人猜测另一个危机就在不远处。悲观者就避开不做投资了。有时我自己也是会想我该怎么做。巴菲特怎么说呢？
"Some years, the gains in underlying earning power we achieve will be minor; very occasionally, the cash register will ring loud. Charlie and I have no magic plan to add earnings except to dream big and to be prepared mentally and financially to act fast when opportunities present themselves. Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons. And that we will do."	在一些时候，公司的盈利能力曾出现衰弱。查理和我没有能够将公司收益过度放大的能力，而在面对阻碍投资收益增长的障碍时，我和他将会采取适当的措施加以应对。每隔大约十年时间，经济环境就会出现恶化。但随之而来的也有挣钱的良机，这时候我们是绝不会无动于衷的。
Many companies, of course, will fall behind, and some will fail. Winnowing of that sort is a product of market dynamism. Moreover, the years ahead will occasionally deliver major market declines—even panics—that will affect virtually all stocks. No one can tell you when these traumas will occur—not me, not Charlie, not economists, not the media. Meg McConnell of the New York Fed aptly described the reality of panics: “We spend a lot of time looking for systemic risk; in truth, however, it tends to find us.”	当然，许多公司将被甩在后面，一些公司将倒闭。这些企业被淘汰是市场活力的结果。而且，未来将偶尔发生市场大幅下跌甚至恐慌，这将对所有股票产生实质性影响。没人能告诉你们这些冲击将何时发生。我做不到、查理做不到，经济学家们也做不到，媒体更无能为力。纽约联储的梅格·麦康奈尔曾贴切地对这一恐慌现实进行了描述：“我们花了很多时间寻找系统性风险，然而事实上它倾向于找我们。”
During such scary periods, you should never forget two things: First, widespread fear is your friend as an investor, because it serves up bargain purchases. Second, personal fear is your enemy. It will also be unwarranted. Investors who avoid high and unnecessary costs and simply sit for an extended period with a collection of large, conservatively-financed American businesses will almost certainly do well.	在这样可怕的岁月里，你们应该牢记两点：首先，大范围的恐慌是作为投资者的你们的朋友，因为它会提供物美价廉的资产；其次，个人恐慌是你的敌人。这是毫无必要的。那些避开高的成本和不必要成本、持有许多大型、适当筹资的企业股票并坐等较长一段时间的投资者们将必定能够获得不错的收益。
We can see Warren Buffett and Charles Munger are ever ready to act should any financial crisis were to hit. They not only going to catch the "gold rain", they want to catch it big. They do not know when will such crisis hit. But they know when one hit, fear will be widespread, and they will make fear their friend.	我们看到巴菲特和查理芒格随时预备金融危机的降临。他们不止要紧抓天降金雨的良机，他们要大赚特赚。他们不晓得危机何时会来临。他们晓得当这样的事情发生时，恐惧的心理就会扩散，他们就会化恐惧成为他们的良机。
With regards to 2008/2009 financial crisis, I have much regrets. When goods shares were on sales, I did nothing because of fear. So, I missed one of the golden opportunity in my life time. If there will be one crisis ahead, I hope i won't miss it this time around.	对于2008/2009年的金融风暴，我有无限的惋惜。当许多好公司的股价大平卖的时候，我因为惧怕而无动于衷。就这样白白错过人生中的其中一个赚钱良机。如果还有机会遇到将来的风暴，希望我不会重蹈覆辙。
As said, some investors are afraid of crisis that happened every ten years will be near. I, too, believed because greed, there will be one asset that will be pushed too high that it must eventually fall to ground. We know from history of many previous asset bubbles. And the only thing we learn from history is we never learn.	就如之前所说的，许多潜在投资者担心十年一期的风暴就在眼前随时爆发。我也相信因着人性的贪婪，某个投资项目在达到疯狂炒作之后，总会因后继无力而兵败如山倒。翻开历史就知道曾发生过不同名目的资产泡沫。历史也一再在显示我们从中什么教训都没学到。
In these two three years of investing life, I met few small corrections. Every corrections strengthen my psychological strength. In the beginning, a few percentage of loss is going to make me hurt. Have been thinking am I not cut to be an investor. With all these "trainings", I believed psychological strength is the most critical criterion in deciding our investment success or failure. We can go to classes or read books on investment skills or investment psychology, but our emotion is sure to be tested as we see our capital keep reducing.	在最近两三年的投资生涯里经过几次的小调整。每次的调整就一再的加强我的心理素质。刚开始时，那几巴仙的亏损让我心跳不已。一再怀疑自己是否与股票无缘。一次一次的经历成功失败成功失败之后，更加肯定心理因素才是投资成败的关键。参加课程或是阅读书籍的确可以教导我们投资技巧，甚至投资心理。但是当我们看着资本在减少的时候，心理还是要挣扎的。
The above three paragraph from Buffett, aren't those message we often read in books or heard in seminars? To be able to stay calm during crisis is to get ready. I would presume ready in the sense of knowledge and capital wise.	以上的三段巴菲特的信息，不就是我们常在书本或讲座所学到的吗？我们应该再次提醒自己要在危机中处变不惊，就要做好万全准备。我会想到要在知识上和资本上都有有所准备。
When the market is calm, we should try to learn stock analysis skills, to know about listed companies' background and their business, know our reactions during adverse situations, and save a part of income as capital. During this time, we should be investing in the market in small scale. Well, we don't swim if we don't jump into the pool.	在一切风平浪静的时候，应该努力认识分析股票的能力、认识上市公司的背景及营运状况、认识自己应变不利环境的心理（挣扎），还要预留收入的某一部分作为资本。在这个阶段也要少量的投资股票，毕竟不跳进水里永远也不会游泳。
As for me, I am relieved to see improvement in investment returns and feel more secured after I changed my investment style. I think value investing is more suitable to me. Oh, I also hope Buffett will once again come out to encourage all of us when such crisis happen. (He did that, during the later part of 2008/2009 financial crisis, by writing to newspaper about his purchase of American shares and advised people not to wait for the robins.)	对于我，自从改变投资方法后，投资回酬逐渐有起色，心理也更加安稳。看来价值型投资比较适合我。啊，我也希望的风暴来临时，巴菲特能站出来给予大家适时的鼓励。（在2008/2009的风暴后期，他曾致信报社告知他已在买股票并鼓励大众不要等知更鸟出现。）
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121 When one party of a bank account jointholder passed on, can the other party make withdrawal?

When one party of a bank account jointholder passed on, can the other party make withdrawal?	聯名開戶頭1人離世 另一方能提款嗎？
The title is actually a reporting published in ChinaPress (21/2/2017). The reporter is responding to a online rumour that when one party of a bank account jointholder passed on, the left-behind party cannot automatically inherit the money.	“聯名開戶頭1人離世 另一方能提款嗎？”是刊登在中国报（21/2/2017）的一则报道。记者是根据网上谣传关于当银行户头的某方逝世时、另一方无法自动继承存款的问题，而想几间银行进行访问。
I believe many of us do not know the answer for sure. Just that elderly parents will normally open jointholder account with their children, to play safe. Well, if it can be inherit automatically, what should we do then? This we need to find out.	我相信很多人其实也不是很肯定答案。只是一般上的年长者都会与子女开设联名户头以防万一。如果真的生存方无法自动继承存款，哪又要怎么办呢？这确实也是我们必须了解的。
The reporter found out the answer depends solely on the decision made during account opening time—is it to be operated by a single party or both parties. If it is single party, the other party has to inform the bank together with supporting documents such as both NRICs, certificate of death, and signing a letter of indemnity. In this case, the account should belongs to left-behind party in a week time.	记者的访问结果是—能与否完全视乎开户时是选择单方或双方操作户头为准。若是单方即可领款的情况，那生存方必须通知银行并附上双方身份证、死亡证书、签署免责声明书，一般上在一个星期即可由生存方继承存款。
In the case of both parties to operate, then it depends on whether a Wills is available or not. Regardless of the availability, the account will be freeze until Letter of Administration or Grant of Probate is produced.	若是选择了双方签名方可领款的情况呢，那就得依据是否有遗嘱的情况而定了。在这个情况下，户头将被冻结直到家属完成遗嘱认证书或财产分配执行书。
The report also analysed situation with a Will is easier and faster than a situation where Will is not written. Therefore, a proper distribution instruction is definitely necessary. Although we may think having single party to operate may work just fine, we must remember one may have not only bank accounts. He could have a house, car, various investments, heirloom that need to be distributed.	报道也有分析有遗嘱的情况下的程序要较没有遗嘱的情况简单以及省时。所以妥善安排分配是绝对重要的。虽然说单方可操作户头的安排似乎已经挺妥善了，但我们还是必须考量到一个人可能不仅仅只有银行户头罢了。他可能还有屋子、车子、投资、家传之宝等等的财产需要分配。
So, let's make proper instruction. After all, we want our loved ones to enjoys our hard-earned assets, and not let them be frozen or become unclaimed assets.	让我们好好的安排我们的财产。毕竟我们要辛辛苦苦赚来的财产让挚亲拥有，而不是财产被冻结或是变成无人认领。

120 Videos @ Investors at Google

Investors at Google	Investors at Google
There is a wealth of videos about value investors or authors at Investors at Google. I am so excited when I listen to them. For some of the big names (Mohnish Pabrai, Pat Dorsey, Howard Marks etc.), I have heard of them and maybe read their books. However, to be able to listen to their talk is always a wonderful experience.	Investors at Google 里有好多价值型投资者或作者的演讲录影。真的很开心可以听到这些录影。当中有许多大师(Mohnish Pabrai, Pat Dorsey, Howard Marks 等)，我都有听过他们的大名或读过他们的著作，毕竟可以听大师的演讲还是很棒的。
Wow, I think it must be fortunate to work in Google. Besides about investing, videos on other areas of interest can also be found. Pls drop by there. I am sure there must be some that might interest / benefit you.	在谷歌打工好像很不错喔。除了关于投资的，还有其他方面的演讲录影。不妨去那儿一游。我相信可以有不薄的收获。