122 What I learned about market timing and emotion from "Berkshire Hathaway Letter to Shareholders 2017"

What I learned about market timing and emotion from "Berkshire Hathaway Letter to Shareholders 2017"	我从"2017年伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司致股东信"所学到的—进场时机以及心理。
Wow, what a packed Saturday (25/2/2017) it was. I attended a CE Course. And on that night, I get to know Berkshire Hathaway released its 2017 letter to shareholders. Yup, I make it compulsory to read it. I get to do it on Sunday morning, though. And I can't wait to share with friends during the breakfast chit-chat.	上个周末(25/2/2017)真是充实的一天。当天我参加了一个CE课程，到时另外分享我所学习到的。星期六当晚知晓巴菲特的公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦发布了2017年的股东信。这是我必读的。我要到了星期天早上才有时间做到。当我跟朋友吃早餐时又迫不及待的跟他们分享。
It was a long letter. Out of it, many things caught my eyes. I particularly want to share about how we—me included—has failed to be a smart investor.	这是挺长的一封信。当中有许多学习的。现在只想记录一些我们这些所谓投资者常会犯下的错误。
Since the global financial crisis 2008/2009, it is almost ten years. So, sometimes we hear people talking about another crisis may be near the corner. The pessimists will not want to do investments now. Sometimes, I will also think what should I do. What did Buffett say?	2008/2009的全球金融危机迄今过了也快十年了。难怪我们偶尔会听到有人猜测另一个危机就在不远处。悲观者就避开不做投资了。有时我自己也是会想我该怎么做。巴菲特怎么说呢？
"Some years, the gains in underlying earning power we achieve will be minor; very occasionally, the cash register will ring loud. Charlie and I have no magic plan to add earnings except to dream big and to be prepared mentally and financially to act fast when opportunities present themselves. Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons. And that we will do."	在一些时候，公司的盈利能力曾出现衰弱。查理和我没有能够将公司收益过度放大的能力，而在面对阻碍投资收益增长的障碍时，我和他将会采取适当的措施加以应对。每隔大约十年时间，经济环境就会出现恶化。但随之而来的也有挣钱的良机，这时候我们是绝不会无动于衷的。
Many companies, of course, will fall behind, and some will fail. Winnowing of that sort is a product of market dynamism. Moreover, the years ahead will occasionally deliver major market declines—even panics—that will affect virtually all stocks. No one can tell you when these traumas will occur—not me, not Charlie, not economists, not the media. Meg McConnell of the New York Fed aptly described the reality of panics: “We spend a lot of time looking for systemic risk; in truth, however, it tends to find us.”	当然，许多公司将被甩在后面，一些公司将倒闭。这些企业被淘汰是市场活力的结果。而且，未来将偶尔发生市场大幅下跌甚至恐慌，这将对所有股票产生实质性影响。没人能告诉你们这些冲击将何时发生。我做不到、查理做不到，经济学家们也做不到，媒体更无能为力。纽约联储的梅格·麦康奈尔曾贴切地对这一恐慌现实进行了描述：“我们花了很多时间寻找系统性风险，然而事实上它倾向于找我们。”
During such scary periods, you should never forget two things: First, widespread fear is your friend as an investor, because it serves up bargain purchases. Second, personal fear is your enemy. It will also be unwarranted. Investors who avoid high and unnecessary costs and simply sit for an extended period with a collection of large, conservatively-financed American businesses will almost certainly do well.	在这样可怕的岁月里，你们应该牢记两点：首先，大范围的恐慌是作为投资者的你们的朋友，因为它会提供物美价廉的资产；其次，个人恐慌是你的敌人。这是毫无必要的。那些避开高的成本和不必要成本、持有许多大型、适当筹资的企业股票并坐等较长一段时间的投资者们将必定能够获得不错的收益。
We can see Warren Buffett and Charles Munger are ever ready to act should any financial crisis were to hit. They not only going to catch the "gold rain", they want to catch it big. They do not know when will such crisis hit. But they know when one hit, fear will be widespread, and they will make fear their friend.	我们看到巴菲特和查理芒格随时预备金融危机的降临。他们不止要紧抓天降金雨的良机，他们要大赚特赚。他们不晓得危机何时会来临。他们晓得当这样的事情发生时，恐惧的心理就会扩散，他们就会化恐惧成为他们的良机。
With regards to 2008/2009 financial crisis, I have much regrets. When goods shares were on sales, I did nothing because of fear. So, I missed one of the golden opportunity in my life time. If there will be one crisis ahead, I hope i won't miss it this time around.	对于2008/2009年的金融风暴，我有无限的惋惜。当许多好公司的股价大平卖的时候，我因为惧怕而无动于衷。就这样白白错过人生中的其中一个赚钱良机。如果还有机会遇到将来的风暴，希望我不会重蹈覆辙。
As said, some investors are afraid of crisis that happened every ten years will be near. I, too, believed because greed, there will be one asset that will be pushed too high that it must eventually fall to ground. We know from history of many previous asset bubbles. And the only thing we learn from history is we never learn.	就如之前所说的，许多潜在投资者担心十年一期的风暴就在眼前随时爆发。我也相信因着人性的贪婪，某个投资项目在达到疯狂炒作之后，总会因后继无力而兵败如山倒。翻开历史就知道曾发生过不同名目的资产泡沫。历史也一再在显示我们从中什么教训都没学到。
In these two three years of investing life, I met few small corrections. Every corrections strengthen my psychological strength. In the beginning, a few percentage of loss is going to make me hurt. Have been thinking am I not cut to be an investor. With all these "trainings", I believed psychological strength is the most critical criterion in deciding our investment success or failure. We can go to classes or read books on investment skills or investment psychology, but our emotion is sure to be tested as we see our capital keep reducing.	在最近两三年的投资生涯里经过几次的小调整。每次的调整就一再的加强我的心理素质。刚开始时，那几巴仙的亏损让我心跳不已。一再怀疑自己是否与股票无缘。一次一次的经历成功失败成功失败之后，更加肯定心理因素才是投资成败的关键。参加课程或是阅读书籍的确可以教导我们投资技巧，甚至投资心理。但是当我们看着资本在减少的时候，心理还是要挣扎的。
The above three paragraph from Buffett, aren't those message we often read in books or heard in seminars? To be able to stay calm during crisis is to get ready. I would presume ready in the sense of knowledge and capital wise.	以上的三段巴菲特的信息，不就是我们常在书本或讲座所学到的吗？我们应该再次提醒自己要在危机中处变不惊，就要做好万全准备。我会想到要在知识上和资本上都有有所准备。
When the market is calm, we should try to learn stock analysis skills, to know about listed companies' background and their business, know our reactions during adverse situations, and save a part of income as capital. During this time, we should be investing in the market in small scale. Well, we don't swim if we don't jump into the pool.	在一切风平浪静的时候，应该努力认识分析股票的能力、认识上市公司的背景及营运状况、认识自己应变不利环境的心理（挣扎），还要预留收入的某一部分作为资本。在这个阶段也要少量的投资股票，毕竟不跳进水里永远也不会游泳。
As for me, I am relieved to see improvement in investment returns and feel more secured after I changed my investment style. I think value investing is more suitable to me. Oh, I also hope Buffett will once again come out to encourage all of us when such crisis happen. (He did that, during the later part of 2008/2009 financial crisis, by writing to newspaper about his purchase of American shares and advised people not to wait for the robins.)	对于我，自从改变投资方法后，投资回酬逐渐有起色，心理也更加安稳。看来价值型投资比较适合我。啊，我也希望的风暴来临时，巴菲特能站出来给予大家适时的鼓励。（在2008/2009的风暴后期，他曾致信报社告知他已在买股票并鼓励大众不要等知更鸟出现。）
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