Monday, June 12, 2023

167 Endowment Plan of a friend (cont.) 朋友的储蓄保单(续)

 167 Endowment Plan of a friend (cont.) 朋友的储蓄保单(续)

 My last post talked about my friend's endowment policy, where I asked him to find out how many they waited before maturity value paid out.

He managed to find the policy, snap shot a few pages to me. I calculated the rate of return, replied him, but he is a bit sad.

So the premium paying period for the endowment policy is 20 years. At the end of 20 years, there will be a maturity value. In the first 20 years, annual premium was RM1332, maturity value is RM34019。

Internal rate of return is 2.27%, as shown below.


Reverse calculate to check whether 2.27% counted by spreadsheet is correct or wrong. (Exact interest rate should be 2.2717%)


My friend is sad because the internal rate of return is even lower than FD rate. Past 25 years FD rate in Malaysia are as below. (Individual banks may have launched better rates, but I don't have any data.)


If the premium had been put in FD, how much will the difference be? (Individual banks may have launched better rates, but since I don't have any data, I rely on data in above table.)


It turns out the difference is a meagre RM1500!

On hindsight, my friend thinks he might as well put the money in bond fund to make more money. He said if bond funds can returned 5.5% per annum, it will be RM49012 after 20 years. Then it will be a difference of RM15000. 




Well, what can we derived?

  1. Insurance or savings or investment are different products. If that product is deemed to be suitable for buyer during buying time, it is the the best product. No point regretting later.
  2. Since insurance or savings or investment are different products, they should be complementing each other, not competing. If something bad happened, insurance came to rescue. When nothing happened, investment plays its role.
  3. When the investment horizon can be as long as 20, 30 years, too small an investment amount won't create jaw dropping total sum. In the early stage, the investment amount can be small, but as salary increase, so must the investment value. Just think of our EPF, who didn't start with twenty thirty fifty bucks, then proceed to a hundred, two hundred, three hundred and so on until it become a huge amount because of compounding interest.
  4. When the investment horizon can be as long as 20, 30 years, investing in a too conservative tool is a waste of time. At the very least, one can create a portfolio of high and low risk products, to increase the rate of return. We can see the difference of 3% and 5.5% from the above discussion.

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上一篇说到朋友的储蓄保单,就是要他去问清楚还完供期后等了多少年才拿到最终价值。

他把保单给找了出来,拍了几张照片给我看。把回酬率算了一算,告诉了他,不想朋友有点儿伤心了。

原来该储蓄保单总共要还20年,第20年到期后可以拿到最终价值。头20年,每年的保费是RM1332。最终拿到的最终价值为RM34019。

回酬率2.27%,如下。


反向试算2.27%利率对或错。(切确是2.2717%)。


朋友伤心是因为回酬率少过定期存款利率。马来西亚过去25年的定期存款利率如下图。(个别银行可能曾推出更加优惠的利率,我没有资料。)


那如果那些年的那些钱放在定期存款,结果差别多少呢?(个别银行可能曾推出更加优惠的利率,我没有资料,就只能用以上的资料试算。)


咦,差别竟然只有RM1500!

朋友觉得要是早知道,倒不如就投资于债券型基金,可以拿到更高的总额。他说如果债券型基金有5.5%的回酬率,那20年就有RM49012。如此就有RM15000的差别了。




到此可以怎样说呢?

  1. 保险、储蓄、投资是不同的产品。在那个时候某个产品适合买者的需要,那个产品就是当下最适合的产品。事后不要再懊悔了。
  2. 保险、储蓄、投资既然是不同的产品。应该成为互补,而非有我没他。万一发生什么事时,保险发挥功能。而如果没事发生,投资发挥功能。
  3. 当投资年限可以跨度20、30年,太小的投资金额就创造不出称羡的总额。因此,初期金额可以小,但随着薪水的增加,宜适度增加投资金额以期创造更大的总数。就想我们的公积金啊,谁不是刚开始时几十块钱几十块钱,然后慢慢变一百、两百、三百,又利滚利的越来越多。
  4. 当投资年限可以跨度20、30年,仅投资太过保守的投资标的,太可惜了。至少至少也应该有一个高低风险搭配的组合,适度提高投资报酬率。以上可以看到3%跟5.5%的差别。

Wednesday, June 7, 2023

166 Endowment Plan of a friend 朋友的储蓄保单

 166 Endowment Plan of a friend 朋友的储蓄保单

Last week, my friend said his son's endowment plan (bought by his wife) is going to mature, and they are going to get a sum of money. So, he is curious about the interest (rate of return).

The payment period period for that endowment plan is 12 years, each payment was RM1,585. The maturity value is RM34,019.

And I asked him, after paying for 12 years, how many years did they waited till maturity? He is not sure, he thought they can get the maturity value on the 13th year. I am a bit skeptical, so I asked him to check with his wife again. Till now, he has not reply to me.

OK, we can do some simulation to see the rate of return using different maturity period. I use a spreadsheet, key in 12 lines of -1585 (payment, duit keluar) plus a line of 34019 (receiving, duit masuk). The maturity value (34019), I placed in different different years. Then I use IRR function to calculate the internal rate of return. As below.


We can see the IRR is between 3.34%~8.67.

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上个星期,朋友说他的太太为孩子买的储蓄保单到期了,有得拿一笔钱了。那他很想知道这份储蓄保单的利息(回抽率)到底有多少。

他说该储蓄保单一共要还12年,每期RM1,585。到期可以拿到RM34,019。

那我问他还了12年后,等了多少年才到期呢?他也不知道,还以为第13年就到期领钱了。我有点儿质疑,要他跟他太太询问清楚。这是因为第几年到期就决定了回抽率。只是到今天他还没有给我答案啦。

那好,我们可以做几个推算,依不同的到期年来看看回酬率多寡。我用 spreadsheet ,输入 12 行的 -1585 (还款,钱飞出去)再加一行的 34019 (收到钱,钱飞进来)。到期日的数目 (34019),我把它放在不同的年份借此试算出内部回酬率 (internal rate of return)。看下图。


所以回酬率介于3.34%~8.67%之间。

Thursday, June 1, 2023

165 China funds: Lump Sum vs Regular Savings 中国基金之单笔投资PK定期定额投资

165 China funds: Lump Sum vs Regular Savings 中国基金之单笔投资PK定期定额投资


With regards to China funds, the past three years was indeed quite a torture. Ever since China funds hit their peaks in early 2021, it has been on downtrend for more than 2 years. From their peaks, the current level are 40-50% lower.




It was widely expected with the opening up of China, there would be a bull in China stock market. However, recent released data showed China's economy recovery seems very weak. Analysts interviewed by radios expects we won't see China bull market this year.

When it comes to investing, it is either doing lump sum investment or regular savings. I was wondering what would the situation be like, of the two, in this type of long term downtrend. So, I go to  https://www.fsmone.com.my , to use the Portfolio Simulator and RSP Calculator to do some simulation. (I simply use this site because readers can always double check my results.)

I chose 6 China funds for this simulation. And the result is as below.


The result suggest no big difference.

OK, I said China funds hit peak two years ago. What would the situation be if we do lump sum investment and regular savings from then. Let's see.


Ha, now we can the difference is quite big. Lump sum investment loss way more than regular savings. In downtrend, lump sum investors has big pressure.

Of course, in uptrend, lump sum investment will reap higher profit. Below is the performance of US fund and technology fund.


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对于中国基金,过去三年的确很难熬。中国基金在2021年头触顶后,连续跌了两年有多。如果从顶峰算起,目前的位阶大概跌了4、5成。




今年原本预期中国解封之后,可以迎来期待已久的股市涨潮,随着最近出炉的一些数字似乎显示中国经济的复苏力度有点儿弱。受电台访问的分析师估计今年可能还不能看到中国股市涨潮。

那,一般投资基金要不单笔、要不定期定额投资。好奇在这种长期跌势的基金,这两者会有怎样的。因此上 https://www.fsmone.com.my ,用网站的 Portfolio Simulator 和 RSP Calculator 来试算。(用这个网站是因为读者可以进行检查。)

我选了6个中国基金来试算。结果如下。


以上结果显示单笔或定期定额似乎差别不大。

OK,刚才说中国基金是在两年前触顶,那从两年前开始单笔和定期定额又有怎样的差别吗?来看看吧。


现在就可以看到很大的差别咯。单笔投资的亏损幅度要比定期定额大很多。在跌势中,单笔投资的压力很大捏。

当然,在涨势中,单笔投资的甜头就比较大咯。以下是美国基金以及科技基金的表现。





Thursday, January 19, 2023

164 Court ruled illegitimate child entitled to portion of deceased father's estate 联邦法院裁决私生子女有权共享父亲遗产

164 Court ruled illegitimate child entitled to portion of deceased father's estate 联邦法院裁决私生子女有权共享父亲遗产
 

This is a ruling that affects illegitimate child of a non Muslim father that died without a Will.

Court: Illegitimate child entitled to portion of deceased father's estate (https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/652119)

Mahkamah Persekutuan: Anak luar nikah bukan Islam berhak warisi pusaka mendiang bapa (https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/652123)

In this ruling, Federal Court ruled the word "issue" should cover a child regardless of whether he / she is a legitimate or illegitimate child.

This is different from what I have been trained. I remember illegitimate child can only claim from his / her mother, but not father. But just now when I googled again, it seems like there is another additional requirement, and that is the mother does not has other legitimate child.

On this point, I think I want to pose few questions to Trustee during the next training.

  1. How will the ruling affects the past and future cases of without Will?
  2. Will the ruling affect cases with Will? Let's say a testator has legitimate and illegitimate children, and in his Will he just write "children" to inherit his estate.
  3. During such court case, does all estate being frozen until there is ruling? This is considering the case was brought up in 2015, about 7-8 years for the final ruling.

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这个是一项影响没立下遗嘱的非穆斯林父亲的私生子女的判决。

Court: Illegitimate child entitled to portion of deceased father's estate (https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/652119)

Mahkamah Persekutuan: Anak luar nikah bukan Islam berhak warisi pusaka mendiang bapa (https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/652123)

在本判决仲,联邦法院裁定“子嗣”一词必须包括与已故父母有血缘关系的孩子,无论孩子是否合法。

这和我所被教导的有点儿不同。我记得私生子女只能索取亲生母亲的遗产,父亲的不能。但是我刚刚谷歌了一下,原来这里边儿还有一个条件,那就是该名母亲不可有其他的合法子女。

看来,下次有课程的话,我得问问信托公司。

  1. 如此的裁决会如何影响过往以及未来的無遗嘱案件?
  2. 如此的判决会影响有遗嘱的案件嗎?假设说立遗嘱者同时有着合法以及私生子女,而遗嘱只写“子女”可继承财产。
  3. 在这样的法庭案件仲,是否全部的财产都被冻结呢?毕竟本案是从2015年开始,也一直进行了7-8年才下最后判决。

Monday, December 5, 2022

163 Simple Equity-Bond Asset Allocation vs Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio

 163 Simple Equity-Bond Asset Allocation vs Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio 简易的股债资产配置 vs 达里欧的全天候资产配置


After that, I keep thinking what will the result like if it is a simple Equity-Bond Asset Allocation.

So, today I run another simulation to compare.

Same thing, I am going to use FundSuperMart's Portfolio Simulator.

Assumptions:-
Initial Investment: RM100,000
Backtest Period: 10-Year
Rebalancing: Quarterly
Wholesale Fund: No

Funds to use:-
Manulife Invesment U.S. Equity
Amanahraya Syariah Trust
Amanahraya Unit Trust
RHB Gold and General
Manulife Global Resources

Allocation for Portfolio 1 & 2


The Result:


Observation:

Seems like both portfolio has similar returns, with volatility of Portfolio 1 slightly higher than Portfolio 2.

For those who has smaller initial investment, e.g. RM10,000, they can employ Portfolio 2 for ease of allocation of capital.


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接着,我就想知道如果我只用最简单的股债资产配置的话,结果会是如何呢?

今天,再来做一次新的试算来比较看看吧。


假设:
初始投资额 Initial Investment: RM100,000
回测期限 Backtest Period: 10-Year
再平衡 Rebalancing: Quarterly
Wholesale Fund: No

基金:
Manulife Invesment U.S. Equity
Amanahraya Syariah Trust
Amanahraya Unit Trust
RHB Gold and General
Manulife Global Resources

组合 1 & 2 的配置如下:


成绩如下:-


观察:

两者的回酬似乎不相上下,注意到组合 1 的波动稍微高于组合 2。

对于只有较低投资额的人,举例 RM10,000,他们可以直接运用组合 2 因为比较容易分配资金。