Tuesday, April 17, 2018

132 China A-shares vs H-shares, which is cheaper?


China A-shares vs H-shares, which is cheaper?

中国A股及H股,何者较廉?

On 11/4/18, I attended a market outlook talk. Fund house A came to talk about China market and one of their China fund that can access to China A-shares market. The presenter said it is a good time to consider China A-shares because they are at a discount to H-shares peers. 于11/4/18出席一市场前景讲座。A基金公司来讲解中国市场及其可投资A股的中国基金。讲解人提到此时正宜考虑中国A股因为它们正比H股便宜。
His statement came a surprise to me. I had just finished reading a few China and Hong Kong value investors' / fund managers' on their investment strategies. They said since H-shares is cheaper than A-shares, apparently it makes sense for them to buy H-shares. 这话有点儿让我惊讶。我刚读完基本中国及香港价值型投资者或基金经理的书。对于两地上市的公司,他们的分析是“同股同权,应买较便宜的”。既然H股较A股便宜,他们买的是H股。
So, I immediately google it up. In Financial Times (https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/summary?s=HSCAHPI:HKG), it is shown that A-shares is about 23% premium over H-shares. The data is for 5 years. 所以我马上谷歌一下。在Financial Times (https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/summary?s=HSCAHPI:HKG), 可以看到A股对比H股有23%的溢价。这里有5年的资料。

This morning, I googled again since I want to note down in this blog. In investing.com (https://www.investing.com/indices/hs-cahpi), I can see a longer data, as far back as 2006. So now I can see somewhere between 2007 to 2010, A-shares was at premium to H-shares, with its peak at 2008. Then A-shares were at a discount to H-shares in between 2010 to 2015, before they became at a premium again. 今早,我再次谷歌,因为要在此处留个记录。在investing.com (https://www.investing.com/indices/hs-cahpi),我可以看到久至2006年的资料。资料现实在2007年至2010年期间,A股对比H股有溢价,且在2008年达到高峰。接着的2010年至2014年之间,A股对比H股是出现折价的。2014年后,A股再次出现溢价。

Although there is a premium, but when we refer to data in Fundsupermart Malaysia (https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/research/-View-Market-Valuation-as-of-16-April-2018-9662), the three stock markets at Greater China area are still quite low in valuation when compared to their fair value PE multiple. So, to invest or not to invest in A-shares, solely depends on individuals. 虽然出现溢价现象,但参照Fundsupermart Malaysia (https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/research/-View-Market-Valuation-as-of-16-April-2018-9662) 的资料,大中华两岸三地的股市本益比仍然是较合理估值低的。所以要不要投资A股就看各位看官了。
Personally, maybe I still do not dare to go into A-shares. Maybe I was influenced by those books, that China market is still a relatively young market, the investors there still have not treat stock market in a more rational manner. Herd mentality is still a common phenomenon. 就本身而言,可能我还不敢参与A股。当然A股里最近出现了几只回报标清的股票如贵州茅台。或许是被那几本书影响,中国股市毕竟历史较短,股民还没有理性的看待股市,常常出现跟风现象。

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